HORSE RACING

2017 Melbourne Cup Analysis

The highly anticipated Melbourne Cup is just around the corner. This Spring Carnival has seen some major long-shots celebrate Group 1 victory. Before you back your selection for the 2017 Melbourne Cup, here’s some information you should consider on each of the runners.

 

(1) Hartnell

  • Drawn Barrier 12
  • 3rd in Last Year’s Melbourne Cup
  • Nowhere near the form from last preparation.
  • Carrying 57.5kg over 3200m will be a massive challenge. In 2016 Hartnell only carried 56kg and was in way better form leading up to the race.
  • Worth noting that just five winners have carried 56kg or more in the last 21 years.

 

2) Almandin

  • Drawn Barrier 14
  • The 2016 winner will have to carry 56.5kg over the distance. 4.5kg more than what he carried to victory in 2016.
  • Only 5 horses have gone back-to-back in the Melbourne Cup, a very difficult task.

 

3) Humidor

  • Drawn Barrier 13
  • Carrying 56kg
  • Showed plenty of promise when he was able to challenge the almighty mare (Winx) in the Ladbrokes Cox Plate and managed to finish 5th in the BMW Caulfield Cup.
  • Once again, real question-marks on distance. Humidor’s winning range is generally in the 1600m – 2000m mark.

 

4) Tiberian

  • Barrier 23 – Not ideal at all
  • Carrying 55.5kg
  • International Horse that has been extremely impressive in France. Has raced 5 times this preparation for 4 victories at the 2500m distance.
  • Raced 4023m in Ascot (GB) only to be beaten by 46 lengths in 2016. Clearly wasn’t suited to that distance, normally races around 2500m-3000m now.

 

5) Marmelo

  • Barrier 16 – Good Result
  • Carrying 55 kg with Hugh Bowman on board – Terrific Result
  • Interesting Horse from Great Britain
  • Has raced at the 3000m on 4 occasions for 2 wins and 2 places. Distance should’t be a issue.
  • Had its first run in AUS at the BMW Caulfield Cup, finishing a respectable 6th place. Will relish the increase in distance going into the Melbourne Cup.
  • Hugh Bowman admitted he rode cautiously in the Caulfield Cup in a bid to ensue he wasn’t suspended prior to the Cox Plate.
  • 35 out of 150 favourites have won the Melbourne Cup (23%).  71 favourites have finished in the first three placings (47%)

Major Chance.

 

 

6) Red Cardinal

  • Barrier 24
  • Carrying 55kg
  • Has only raced 10 times in its career, winning 50% of the time and placing 90% of the time.
  • In the Group 3 Belmont Cup Invitational he was able to get the job done, outclassing Wall of Fire and Wicklow Brave.
  • 3:18 to race 3219m. Worth noting that Almandin won the race in 2016 with a time of 3:20.58.

 

7) Johannes Vermeer

  • Barrier 3
  • Carrying 54.5kg
  • Has never raced beyond 2414m.
  • Vermeer finished 3rd in the Caulfield Cup, a good result considering he was in 1oth position with 400m left in the race.

 

8) Bondi Beach

  • Barrier 1
  • Carrying 54kg
  • Only the two runs this preparation finishing 9th and 11th respectively.
  • Going to need a bit of luck on this one, but after all anything is possible.

 

9) Max Dynamite

  • Barrier 2
  • Very close to victory in 2015, finishing 2nd behind Prince of Penzance in the 2015 Melbourne Cup.
  • 8 y.o already has odds against him, with only two 8 year olds ever managing to win the Cup.

 

10) Ventura Storm

  • Barrier 6
  • Glen Boss has won the most Melbourne Cup’s out of all the Jockey’s (3)
  • In the previous 11 Melbourne Cups, a stallion has won the race seven times.
  • Another Horse that was raced in the BMW Caulfield Cup, unlike others such as Marmelo and Johannes Vermeer this horse appeared to be struggling towards the back end of the race, fading out to 13th position.

 

11) Who Shot the Barman – SCRATCHED

 

12) Wicklow Brave

  • Barrier 8
  • Carrying 54kg
  • Disappointing in last years Melbourne Cup and this years Caulfield Cup, better options out there.
  • The 9 year old would need alot of luck to claim the cup.

 

13) Big Duke

  • Barrier 5
  • Carrying 53.5kg
  • Was the heavily backed favourite in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup and just couldn’t deliver finishing 4th.
  • Worth noting that he has been tested at 3200m, coming third in the Group 1 Sydney Cup carrying 52kg.

 

14) Us Army Ranger

  • Drawn Barrier 22 – Tough ask
  • Carrying 53kg
  • The Melbourne Cup will be it’s first start in Australia, many have attempted to win the race with no Australian preparation and only one horse has ever done it.
  • Better form-lines out there, raced 8th in the Qatar Goodwood Cup Stakes (3218m) with the winner recording a time of 3:25.47. Too slow for my liking.

 

15) Boom Time

  • Barrier 9 – Good Result
  • Carrying 53kg – Good Result
  • Trained by D. Hayes & T. Dabernig
  • Caulfield Cup is always a good form guide leading into the Melbourne Cup.
  • Has raced at 3200m on one occasion, finished 31 lengths behind the leader in the Sydney Cup.
  • Since 2000, only two Australian-bred horses have won the Melbourne Cup – Viewed (2008) and Shocking (2009).

16) Gallante

  • The Unlucky Barrier 18. No Horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup from barrier 18
  • Carrying 53kg
  • The 101.00 long shot does in-fact have a group one victory next to his name.
  • Hasn’t really showed much promise since finishing 20th in the 2016 Melbourne Cup last year.
  • Raced 2 times this Spring finishing dead last in one.
  • Only 12 Horses aged 7+ have ever won the Melbourne Cup, Makybe Diva being the last 7 year old to win the race in 2005.

 

17) Libran

  • Barrier 7 – Makybe Diva’s Barrier in 2004
  • Carrying 53kg with Dwayne Dunn as jockey.
  • Finished 2nd in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup (2500m) however made some serious ground around the bend and looked impressive.

 

18) Nakeeta

  • Barrier 19 – Hasn’t been a victorious barrier since 1967
  • Carrying 53kg shouldn’t be a issue.
  • Proven at the distance, but has never raced in Australia before. More than 70 international gallopers have tried to win the Melbourne Cup in their first Australian start yet only Vintage Crop in 1993 has achieved it.

 

19) Single Gaze

  • Has drawn Barrier 11, the most successful barrier with 8 horses having won from this barrier.
  • The Australian mare likes to lead, and showed plenty of promise in the BMW Caulfield Cup finished 2nd. Sir Isaac Newton got out to a lengthy lead in that race and ran out of gas, however Single Gaze stayed strong (refer to footage of Caulfield Cup linked to Boom Time).
  • Used to racing between 1200m and 2200m with 57kg.
  • Bookies have the horse at $41.00, questioning its fitness.

 

20) Wall of Fire

  • Only one horse has ever won from Barrier 15 (Silver Knight) which was in 1971.
  • The 5 year old will have to carry 53kg.
  • Was given a opportunity to run in the Caulfield Herbert Power Stakes, was impressive. Sat at the back of the pack all race and came storming home late carrying 58kg.
  • Is proven at the distance, many people will disregard this race and focus on the Caulfield Cup as the relevant form race leading into the Melbourne Cup.

 

21) Thomas Hobson

  • Barrier 21 – Not ideal
  • Carrying 52kg on Tuesday afternoon, significanly less compared to what it is used to over the same distance.
  • “Magic Man” Joao Moreria on board is a major advantage. In 2016 he came extremely close to winning it with Heartbreak City.
  • Distance of Last 4 Races – 3599m, 3269m, 4355m, 4014m
  • Last 4 Results – 2nd, 7th, 2nd, 1st
  • Hard to find footage of this horse racing, the video below is of Thomas Hobson storming home in the Ascot Stakes (4014m).
  • The 8 y.o. relishes the higher distance and would be hoping for a fast race on Tuesday.

 

22) Rekindling

  • Barrier 4 – Will relish this
  • The 4 year old will have to carry 51.5 kg, however it’s used to carrying 57kg in England.
  • Thought it raced quite well in the Group 1 St Leger Stakes (video attached). Was stuck in a very awkward position behind most of the field however finished quite strong. It was able to carry 57kg over 2921m and showed no signs of fatigue.
  • Only flaw for me is how the International form will hold up.
  • Keep your eyes on Rekindling, ticks all the boxes.

 

23) Amelie’s Star

  • Barrier 10
  • Carrying 51kg. Worth noting that it couldn’t carry 51kg over the 2400m in the Caulfield Cup, another tough ask.
  • Raced in the BMW Caulfield Cup alongside the likes of Marmelo, Boom Time, Johannes Vermer but didn’t impress.
  • Was impressive in the Group 3 Bart Cummings (2500m), likes to sit in the middle of the pack and explode. Raced at Caulfield on the 23rd of September, left it too late but came home very strong.
  • Very competitive in Group 3 races however when it comes to the pinnacle races (Group 1’s) just falls short.

 

24) Cismontane

  • Has drawn Barrier 17
  • Major advantage carrying the least weight (50kg), 5Kg less than what it is used to carrying over 2500m.
  • Won the Group 3 Lexus Stakes (2500m) on the 4th of November. Extremely short recovery period, however Gai Waterhouse will give Cismontane every chance.
    “His form is good and if he wins he deserves to run in the Melbourne Cup”
  • In the last 4o years, only 2 horses have won the Lexus Stakes – Melbourne Cup Double.
  • Place Rate of 73.68% in its career, Tuesday’s race might be a big step up in class though.

 

Gamble Responsibly

 

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